tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1853950416675103042024-03-11T23:50:28.960-05:00Pseudo EconomicsSteppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-70406610934931016392017-07-30T20:32:00.000-05:002017-07-30T20:32:01.583-05:00Notes on Bertrand Russell's Autobiography<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I've been reading <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Russell" target="_blank">Bertand Russell's </a>autobiography these past few weeks.</div>
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I've yet to read most of Russell's work, but I'm familiar with what he stood for and produced during his lifetime. </div>
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I remember that what first hit me as terribly interesting, so much so that I had to read the book in only a couple of sittings, was having read his essay <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_I_Am_Not_a_Christian" target="_blank">"Why I am not a Christian"</a>. </div>
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The essay's tone is witty in all the right parts - which was something that made it easy to digest. Instead of the work being sermon-like, or worse, an insulting exposé by an Atheist, it was a calmly well-argumented take by someone who simply, for reasons very aptly laid out, did not agree with Christianity. </div>
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This written work made me feel like I'd been part of a profound conversation with an open mind. One that made it O.K. for me, at that time a teenager, to agree (at least partly) with someone else's relaxed and contrary opinion on a very serious issue. </div>
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Since that first encounter with Russell, I've perused with relative frequency, his <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/russell/" target="_blank">page</a> on the <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/" target="_blank">Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.</a> There's a great big summary of his work and doings throughout his life, much that I've become interested in.</div>
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I've highlighted some interesting passages and key sentences I consider relevant from Russell's autobiography.</div>
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Here's some.</div>
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<b><u>From "<i>Prologue</i> - What I have Lived for":</u></b></div>
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"Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for live, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind."</div>
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<b><u>From "<i>Chapter 1</i> - Childhood":</u></b></div>
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"I think periods of browsing during which no occupation is imposed from without are important in youth because they give time for the formation of these apparently fugitive but really vital impressions."</div>
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<i><b>Regarding his grandmother's death:</b></i></div>
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"...As I have grown older, I have realised more and more the importance she had in moulding my outlook on life. Hear fearlessness, her public spirit, her contempt for convention, and indifference to the opinion of the majority have always seemed good to me and have impressed themselves upon me as worthy of imitation. </div>
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She gave me a Bible with her favourite texts written on the fly-leaf. Among these was <span style="color: blue;">'Thou shalt not follow a multitude to do evil'</span>. Her emphasis upon this text led me in later life to be not afraid of belonging to small minorities."</div>
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<i><b>On a memory of his Uncle William:</b></i></div>
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"I have a very painful recollection: he came to Pembroke Lodge one June evening at the end of day of continual sunshine, every moment of which I had enjoyed. When it became time for me to say good-night, he gravely informed me that the human capacity for enjoyment decreases with the years and that I should never again enjoy a summer's day as much as the one that was now ending. I burst into floods of tears and continued to weep long after I was in bed. <span style="color: blue;">Subsequent experience has shown me that his remark was as untrue as it was cruel."</span></div>
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"Nature and books and (later) mathematics saved me from complete despondency."</div>
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"...the art of concealing her emotions..."</div>
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"...as she had a caustic tongue..."</div>
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"As I have grown older, however, my feelings have changed. I owe to the Russells shyness, sensitiveness, and metaphysics; to the Stanleys vigour, good health, and good spirits. On the whole. the latter seems a better inheritance than the former."</div>
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"<span style="color: blue;">As soon as I realised I was intelligent, I determined to achieve something of intellectual importance if it should be at all possible, and throughout my youth I let nothing whatever stand in the way of this ambition.</span>"</div>
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<b><u>From "<i>Chapter 2</i> - Adolescence"</u></b></div>
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"It became second nature to me to think that whatever I was doing had better be kept to myself, and I have never quite overcome the impulse to concealment which was thus generated.</div>
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I still have an impulse to hide what I am reading when anybody comes into the room, and to hold my tongue generally as to where I have been, and what I have done. It is only by a certain effort of will that I can overcome this impulse, which was generated by the years during which I had to find my way among a set of foolish prohibitions."</div>
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"I was told that all introspection is morbid, so that I regarded this interest in my own thoughts and feelings as another proof of mental aberration.</div>
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After two or three years of introspection, however, I suddenly realised that, as it is the only method of obtaining a great deal of important knowledge, it ought not to be condemned as morbid. This relieved my feelings on this point."</div>
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<i style="font-weight: bold;">On repudiating arguments in favour of religion</i>:</div>
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"For I took the view then, which I have taken ever since, that a theological proposition should not be accepted unless there is the same kind of evidence for it that would be required for a proposition in science."</div>
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<span style="color: blue;">"It appeared to me obvious that the happiness of mankind should be the aim of all action, and I discovered to my surprise that there were those who thought otherwise.</span>"</div>
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-12691018740970334782015-12-31T13:08:00.001-06:002015-12-31T13:21:35.868-06:002015 Requiem - On to 2016<div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I've ceremoniously replaced the Pseudoeconomics.com website with it's brother page on Facebook. It seemed only fair to add an end-of-the-year post on the site before beginning 2016.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here goes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To sum up the year, at least in a post, it's tempting to take a sentimental tone, leaning into mawkish territory with anecdotes of what certain life moments meant during 2015, adorned by special hallmark memories that evoke feelings of joy and contentment. While this sort of synthesis effectively does emotionally charge its author (and readers) at least in terms of finding virtual peace with whatever station in life is being described, it's possible that in doing so therein lies a subtle difference between deriving satisfaction from the little joys in life versus extracting knowledge and maybe a little bit of wisdom from deeper sources that echo higher-impact thoughts. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Quick pop-culture reference: the Ferris Bueller quote "Life moves pretty fast, if you don't stop and look around once in a while, you might miss it" makes a valid point in this regard. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What does "stop and look around once in a while mean" to each person? Philosophically speaking, this statement could mean severe contemplation, decisive introspection and a strong focus in answering self-doubt by addressing general/specific unanswered questions. Banal and mundane approaches could interpret the suggestion to take a pause and think as a way of not letting the rudimentary day-to-day habits drag us into old age without ever having experienced the different joys and thereby personal growth every human being aspires to. The latter definition is what Matthew Broderick referred to in the movie. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The former explanation, though, demands more. However, there is little time to play the deep thinker when making a living or raising a family. 2015 was a trial in that regard. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Man, in general terms, is content with what is. Ignorance is bliss. Psychologists, as is their wont, have referenced family, work and friendships as all contributing to a person's wellbeing. Social Scientists and Economists vie to address the current allocation of resources, optimization of different systems, study of human processes and interpretation of behaviors that determine growth, and reach for, crudely speaking, a closer way to achieve utopia. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><i><b>Note:</b> Pseudoeconomics looks to address just that - the different players and their attempts towards optimization (i.e. Utopia, or augmented reality in its current terms). Economics is an art in that regard. And a very amusing past time for whomever takes on its study as a serious amateur.</i></font></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The worldly professions and the learned men (and women) behind them that move us and shift our existence in this world - politicians, doctors, lawyers, scientists, activists, writers, artists, religious folks, businessmen, yoga instructors - in their origin, provide a service, donning a win-win to society. Until they deviate and don't.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2015 was the year when victims, and here I reference self-imposed victimhood, not the truly afflicted, were not victims, but potential champions that fizzed out. In my personal experience, this was a year in which life re-affirmed itself, upheld by shared experiences with a loyal family, friends and enriched by experiences at work and outside of it. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Octavio Paz said: "Deserve your dream." I think, in plain-speak that means, <b>"get your ass to work"</b>. The trick therein is to work for a dream, not for it's own sake. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As a segue to this post's ending, and on to a richer and much better written text, an opportunity to contemplate the year's successes and great opportunities through an eloquent explanation of the risk represented by excessive pride (always a danger to take note of!), by Paz himself (from the chapter on "Rhythm" in his book "The Bow and the Lyre),</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A favor: pay close attention to the "magic" and "magician" concepts mentioned. The reference might seem archaic. Far from it.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcxlBiGD_pPPJB2bzpIK6soo2IM7qaJbGSZaTCxvz4aFjycX8ZMdW5G_pNl1Qz4ZZEtQ9_12_KFk3w228r-dvizYCwqROjXBq5T8x9-cWeb8OqFENObRpFH0H_xjtgnueCPMfAH_D8zqU/s640/blogger-image-1116133668.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcxlBiGD_pPPJB2bzpIK6soo2IM7qaJbGSZaTCxvz4aFjycX8ZMdW5G_pNl1Qz4ZZEtQ9_12_KFk3w228r-dvizYCwqROjXBq5T8x9-cWeb8OqFENObRpFH0H_xjtgnueCPMfAH_D8zqU/s640/blogger-image-1116133668.jpg"></a></div><br></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Magic is a dangerous and sacrilegious enterprise, an affirmation of human power vis-a-vis the supernatural. Separated from the human herd, facing the gods, the magician is alone. His greatness and almost always, his final sterility is rooted in that aloneness. On the one hand, it is a testimony of his tragic decision. On the other, of his pride. Indeed, every magic that is not transcended - that is, not transformed into a gift, into philanthropy - consumes itself and ends by consuming its creator. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The magician sees men as instruments, forces, nuclei of latent energy. One form of magic consists in the dominion over self for ultimate dominion over others. Princes, kings and leaders surround themselves with magicians and astrologers, the precursors of political advisors. The formulas for magic power are fatally bound up with tyranny and the domination of men. The magician's is a solitary rebellion, because the essence of magical activity is the quest for power. The similarities between magic and technology have frequently been pointed out, and some think that the former is the remote source of the latter. Whether or not this hypothesis is valid, it is obvious that the characteristic mark of modern technology - like that of ancient magic - is the cult of power. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Standing opposite the magician is Prometheus, the loftiest figure created by Western imagination. Neither magician, nor philosopher, nor sage: hero, stealer of fire, philanthropist. The Promethean revolt embodies the revolt of mankind. Implicit in the chained hero's aloneness throbs the return to the world of men. The magician's solitude is a solitude with no return. His revolt is sterile because magic - that is to say, the quest for power by power - ends by annihilating itself. And this, precisely, is the drama of modern society."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Happy new year.</span></div>
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-35962547612379777302015-09-20T20:24:00.002-05:002015-09-20T20:24:57.879-05:00Pseudoeconomics on Facebook<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pseudoeconomics now has a facebook page!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/pseudoeconomics">https://www.facebook.com/pseudoeconomics</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Please follow the link above and like the page.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The dynamic on facebook is such that a page for the website there lends itself nicely to a broader (and more participative) audience.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The website will still be active - albeit with a slight change in focus.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Stay tuned.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-68775341739034305022015-08-22T11:03:00.001-05:002015-08-22T11:03:38.888-05:00Gearty Grilling: The Noble Economist<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17.5636348724365px;">2010 Nobel Prize in Economics winner <a href="http://christopherpissarides.com/" target="_blank">Chris Pissarides </a>explaining the difference between Scandinavia's and Italy's compromise between promoting free markets and keeping a social democracy afloat.</span><br /><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SqSo-xOxAOw" width="480"></iframe>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-63315663311707699042015-07-12T20:38:00.001-05:002015-07-12T20:38:25.941-05:00Reading list<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Have been keeping busy reading the following:</span><br />
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Century" target="_blank">Capital in the 21st Century</a> - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Piketty" target="_blank">Thomas Piketty</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Will be posting comments soon.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A quick summary:</span><br />
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-39685198506903184992015-07-05T12:10:00.000-05:002015-07-05T12:10:08.894-05:00How the euro caused the Greek crisis<div id="fb-root"></div><script>(function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.3"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);}(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));</script><div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/ezraklein/videos/10153482082448410/" data-width="500"><div class="fb-xfbml-parse-ignore"><blockquote cite="https://www.facebook.com/ezraklein/videos/10153482082448410/"><p>The Greek crisis explained in under 3 minutes.</p>Posted by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ezraklein">Ezra Klein</a> on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ezraklein/videos/10153482082448410/">Thursday, July 2, 2015</a></blockquote></div></div>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-5450276753285702092015-05-03T22:27:00.002-05:002015-05-03T22:32:57.724-05:00On the never-ending journey that leads to sound personal convictions<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Malcolm Gladwell is often remembered for one key idea: the 10,000 hour rule (as mentioned in his 2008 non-fiction book <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_%28book%29" target="_blank">Outliers</a>).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gladwell insists on the validity behind the idea, that to become an expert, in basically anything, one must (taking into account some "x" level of aptitude) put in 10,000 hours of practice...which roughly equals 10 years time. The interesting premise here is that, to become an expert, one does not necessarily have to be a genius.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In reading up on <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/myrdal-facts.html" target="_blank">Gunner Myrdal</a>, and <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/hayek-facts.html" target="_blank">Friedrich von Hayek,</a> the 1974 Nobel Prize in Economic winners I have yet to profile, I realized: these men obviously exceeded the ten year quota required to excel in their field. Their professional careers in academia, politics, and as part of their country's intelligentsia community translated into far more than 10,000 hours of dedication to the economic research, application and theory-building needed for the breakthroughs that led to their nobel prize wins. Their work was a product for a lifetime, having built on other economist's own 10,000 hours.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The common (yet very extraordinary) denominator between these Nobel Prize winners (and their equally gifted contemporaries) is the clarity in their ideas, convictions and beliefs. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The winners' prize lectures archived in the nobelprize.org website denote an acute understanding of the world, as if these winners knew exactly what their place on earth meant, and what their work needed to reflect, so as to be valued as truly model citizens. It's baffling to read such clear ideas and strong feelings. It's overwhelming at times, and very exciting to know what their findings meant to them, before their ideas and applications began to mean so much more to the societies, institutions, governments, economies and businesses that benefited indirectly and directly from the work derived therefrom. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I sometimes mention what this blog is supposed to do, and what it's supposed to mean, but the reality is that both those things are in a constant state of flux. What does persist, though, is the never-ending search for a deeper truth; one related towards making sense of the way the world functions, and how to strive that same functioning towards continual improvement. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What's beautiful about concentrating on how economists came about it, is that, economists don't just limit themselves to the established ideas in their field: economists pick and take what works in other realms (psychology, philosophy, sociology, mathematics, politics, etc...) and apply it to the problems that we faced yesterday, face today and will face tomorrow.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All this makes for sound convictions. Naturally.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoJH9AkwjvwA3DVBKCXSKcxO37s8JzIBC2k-m0DsVCYDS2oOSBhRTRywnIsgKpAmS6SQf-m4cKTomOWeV5qclK4qIdR-OGJboeg8Sb8QMsG6iyGOr5stqXW0QKu2VNkrIcim3otKbBtRs/s1600/2014-10-14-a6dbf05d.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoJH9AkwjvwA3DVBKCXSKcxO37s8JzIBC2k-m0DsVCYDS2oOSBhRTRywnIsgKpAmS6SQf-m4cKTomOWeV5qclK4qIdR-OGJboeg8Sb8QMsG6iyGOr5stqXW0QKu2VNkrIcim3otKbBtRs/s1600/2014-10-14-a6dbf05d.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This man clearly had strong convictions.</span></td></tr>
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<br />Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-24550491447978828472015-05-03T14:35:00.003-05:002015-05-03T14:35:34.924-05:00From The Economist: Techs-Mex<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/business/21647624-nascent-tech-hub-may-succeed-solving-local-problems-techs-mex" target="_blank">Slowly, but surely, Mexico is catching up with the rest of the world's start-up scene.</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I wish I could fast-forward my nobel prize in economics series to start learning about the origins of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entrepreneurial_economics" target="_blank">entrepreneurial economics</a>, and the men/women that shaped this school of thought.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I've recently read up on Schumpeter, specifically about the term and concept he coined, that has become synonymous with innovation: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction" target="_blank">creative destruction</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A quick and inspired Google search (keywords: entrepreneurism in Mexico) led to an interesting result: </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRRWdpCW85aWeRbLR9ExWjlbbG2Rz0OO-0Os_j5ldc7MjCD_aTSLugmvu1GPXzmEZsO92nTpI7KPBB7gXI33zN5JZL5qPRDR-b7CqbG8NKfOlWOnwXUCXPVxIzdK9ciwRCsCaIz1w84_0/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-05-03+at+2.16.04+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRRWdpCW85aWeRbLR9ExWjlbbG2Rz0OO-0Os_j5ldc7MjCD_aTSLugmvu1GPXzmEZsO92nTpI7KPBB7gXI33zN5JZL5qPRDR-b7CqbG8NKfOlWOnwXUCXPVxIzdK9ciwRCsCaIz1w84_0/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-05-03+at+2.16.04+PM.png" height="347" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Read: <a href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/INOV_a_00110" target="_blank">"Mexico's growth will come from entrepreneurship..."</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I believe Mexico's and other similar countries' growth <i>will</i> come from entrepreneurship.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Better yet, to have this growth be a product of the virtuous circle that results from inclusive political (checks on power from those that govern) and economic (freedom to compete in a fairer market) institutions would be most momentous.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sustainable growth. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just as is the case with other countries, we have yet to catch up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We (us) must do it right.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is what this blog has been meant to pursue: the search for an interesting, objective formula that leads to <i>sustainable economic growth</i>.</span></div>
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-17973742809960339332015-05-03T14:12:00.002-05:002015-05-03T14:12:36.179-05:00The Economist - Mexico's new movers and shakers<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21650136-they-dont-wear-balaclavas-or-wave-banners-they-are-bringing-about-change-new-movers-and" target="_blank">Sound the trumpets, the activists are coming</a>.</span><div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2IyJEggEzY-D_9lTDzgx77Xpj6Z79uaTWGfkN3tCAO_i1hbUuTXoX0Dd1ZE4gMDBHTDV71eANlmI0JXaVONRkagoAgVOpEwDr7cc2apRzHmQOedJ1UMivLVq41NICxgOlvIIUrpwks8g/s1600/05.03.2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2IyJEggEzY-D_9lTDzgx77Xpj6Z79uaTWGfkN3tCAO_i1hbUuTXoX0Dd1ZE4gMDBHTDV71eANlmI0JXaVONRkagoAgVOpEwDr7cc2apRzHmQOedJ1UMivLVq41NICxgOlvIIUrpwks8g/s1600/05.03.2015.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: The Economist</td></tr>
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-13767893285897668552015-03-30T09:51:00.001-05:002015-03-30T09:51:14.575-05:00Blogs do make a difference! Brace yourself, Piketty.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The age of blogs and open communication has helped everyone have a potential voice. Barriers to entry are low. Amateur and not so amateur Journalists, filmmakers, entrepreneurs, and economists now abound. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Case in point:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">MIT PhD student (<a href="http://mattrognlie.com/" target="_blank">Matt Rognlie</a>) takes on </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Piketty" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Piketty</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He superbly points out 3 mistakes - read </span><a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-27/piketty-s-three-big-mistakes-in-inequality-analysis" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">on</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To Matt my fellow MIT alums, I say:</span><br />
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<br />Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-75991313947538631012015-03-16T19:52:00.001-05:002015-03-18T21:14:23.309-05:00Paul Krugman and his appreciation for macroeconomic analysis<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It seems that digging up previous economic theoretical/analytical breakthroughs via Nobel Prize in Economic profiles isn't all for naught:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My <a href="http://www.pseudoeconomics.com/2015/01/the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-in-economic.html" target="_blank">John Hicks/Kenneth Arrow executive summary profile </a>was particularly instructional for me. Turns out that this is also the case for others. Their brilliant work was recently referenced by Mr. </span><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Paul Krugman</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Say that again?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As recently as two days ago, <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_blank">Paul Krugman</a> made a macroeconomic analysis (</span><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/14/john-and-maynards-excellent-adventure/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body#more-38266" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">John Hick</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">s take</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span>) <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">reference in his </span><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/14/john-and-maynards-excellent-adventure/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body#more-38266" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">New York Times blog</a>.<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Krugman cited Hick's take on the general equilibrium theory (specifically - discussing the way Hicks transformed the theory into a practical tool - and how his take on it plays into measuring an equilibrium between a national economy's commodity-based supply and demand...given, let's say - interest rate fluctuations and other dynamic variables that can be thrown into the mix...as neatly presented via Hicks' IS-LM model).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The more I learn about past influential economists like Hicks, the more I understand how valuable economists' take on <i>how economies function</i> really is. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Economists have been shedding light on how the world works, in very different ways: financially, sociologically, behaviorally, even philosophically.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An economist isn't responsible for having things work out a certain way. There's always too much at stake, and the outcome tied to random, non-linear variables is not only difficult to measure, but also impossible to predict. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Still</i>, economists help us understand the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_machine" target="_blank">economic ghost in the machine</a> that makes this complex world function.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For now, macroeconomic analysis has turned out to be <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_machine" target="_blank">pretty spot on</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hear, hear!</span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-66185495234563562162015-03-01T20:20:00.003-06:002015-03-01T20:20:39.251-06:00The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1973<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<span style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1973/leontief-facts.html" target="_blank">Source</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1973 Nobel Prize in Economics winner </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wassily_Leontief" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Wassily Leontief </a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- a brilliant mind who linked a profound <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cause_and_effect" target="_blank">cause-and-effect </a>theory to a broader economic context, achieving practical value and extending useful economic research and theoretical work academics and public/private enterprise have greatly profited from, all the while <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle" target="_blank">keeping it simple</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His development of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Input%E2%80%93output_model" target="_blank">input-output method and analysis</a> led to impactful economic theory applications throughout the the 20th century. His work provided a clearer way of determining the interrelationships between the theoretical "y" inputs required to provide a desired/required "x" output. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meaning, linking the </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">interdependence between inputs required to oil the machinery behind industrial sectors to produce a particular output, which, itself is an input to another industry (ex: how commodities are used to produce other commodities, and so forth). In a broader context, this analysis also naturally applies to </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">local/regional/national/international economies and their respective sectors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>So, what lies behind the economic machine or system?</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is what perplexed and fascinated Leontief. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As explained and very aptly redacted by MIT professor and prominent input-output economics </span><a href="http://dusp.mit.edu/faculty/karen-r-polenske" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Karen Polenske</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, in the collection of <a href="https://books.google.com.mx/books?id=WRQWAMYkuSIC&pg=PA9&lpg=PA9&dq=applied+economics+input+output&source=bl&ots=kzMTXTI4mU&sig=BcWTYwujdzdnC7ZAXeixiseNbv8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=h57zVP3JK7PfsASc0YCYCg&ved=0CDAQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=applied%20economics%20input%20output&f=false" target="_blank">reflections and perspectives on input-output economics</a> "Wassily Leontief and Input-Output Economics" (edited by <a href="http://www.rug.nl/staff/h.w.a.dietzenbacher/" target="_blank">Dietzenbacher</a> and <a href="http://www.policy.rutgers.edu/faculty/lahr/" target="_blank">Lahr</a>), Leontief gravitated towards combining empirical and theoretical analysis to address economic issues. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having identified the possible pitfalls with depending solely on theory (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias" target="_blank">confirmation bias</a>, or, zeroing in on the input-output model itself, maybe more profound issues with the mechanical approximations derived from depending on <i>fixed coefficients</i>) and empirical approaches, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Leontief insisted on theory going through the required testing grounds of empirical observation, and having empirical observations themselves necessarily tied down to theory. It is important to remember that Leontief was part of a generation of economists where this back and forth between theory and empirical approaches was a contentious issue. Still, what issue isn't contentious in economics?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>So, how does the real world work?</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This question forces the researcher to understand that theorizing and waxing lyrical about the economic machine's cogs and sprockets, and focusing on what tinkering with these moving parts could or could not churn out, was not solely determined through advanced mathematical modeling (taking the second half of the 20th century's economics scene by storm) but by working on data interpretation techniques that emulated real-world functioning. Leontief himself had, in previous decades, been requiring his students to apply mathematical rigor to build better models, but was wary, nonetheless, of having that quantitative approach detach him from more meaningful applications. The input-output model took into account this theory/empirical balance Leontief touted about.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After Leontief's contributions to the input-output technique, questions regarding the economic impact now had answers: scrutiny via simple matrices (very elegantly explained in Leontief's <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1973/leontief-lecture.pdf" target="_blank">nobel prize lecture</a>) provided them.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Light research on this subject made me realize how Leontief's work was a distant cousin (or some incestuous form of it) to Arrow's own work. Both their work, was somehow fathered, or related to </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Leon Walras' </a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">theories. Walras's focus on reaching equilibrium through the supply-demand relationship, price, preference, and restricting excess demand to 0 (to achieve equilibrium - in theory having fulfilled the required prices levels to have done so) served as a useful backdrop to Leontief's own findings.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having approached this turned out to be good fun. In all my pseudoeconomist splendor, I hold a strong interest in matrix-led interrelationships and their optimization. My <a href="https://www.blogger.com/Source%20%20Wassily%20Leontief%20-%20a%20brilliant%20mind%20who%20linked%20a%20profound%20cause-and-effect%20theory%20to%20a%20broader%20economic%20context,%20achieving%20practical%20value%20and%20extending%20useful%20economic%20research%20and%20theoretical%20work%20academics%20and%20public/private%20enterprise%20have%20greatly%20profited%20from,%20all%20the%20while%20keeping%20it%20simple.%20%20%20His%20development%20of%20the%20input-output%20method%20and%20analysis%20led%20to%20impactful%20economic%20theory%20applications%20throughout%20the%20the%2020th%20century.%20His%20work%20provided%20a%20clearer%20way%20of%20determining%20the%20interrelationships%20between%20the%20theoretical%20%22y%22%20inputs%20required%20to%20provide%20a%20desired/required%20%22x%22%20output.%20Meaning,%20linking%20the%20interdependence%20between%20inputs%20required%20to%20oil%20the%20machinery%20behind%20industrial%20sectors%20to%20produce%20a%20particular%20output,%20which,%20itself%20is%20an%20input%20to%20another%20industry.%20In%20a%20broader%20context,%20this%20analysis%20also%20naturally%20applies%20to%20local/regional/national/international%20economies.%20%20So,%20what%20lies%20behind%20the%20economic%20machine%20or%20system?%20%20This%20is%20what%20perplexed%20and%20fascinated%20Leontief.%20%20%20As%20explained%20and%20very%20aptly%20redacted%20by%20MIT%20professor%20and%20prominent%20input-output%20economics%20%20Karen%20Polenske,%20in%20the%20collection%20of%20reflections%20and%20perspectives%20on%20input-output%20economics%20%22Wassily%20Leontief%20and%20Input-Output%20Economics%22%20(edited%20by%20Dietzenbacher%20and%20Lahr),%20Leontief%20gravitated%20towards%20combining%20empirical%20and%20theoretical%20analysis%20to%20properly%20address%20economic%20issues.%20Having%20properly%20identified%20the%20possible%20pitfalls%20with%20depending%20solely%20on%20theory%20(confirmation%20bias,%20or,%20zeroing%20in%20on%20the%20input-output%20model%20itself,%20maybe%20more%20profound%20issues%20with%20the%20mechanical%20approximations%20derived%20from%20depending%20on%20fixed%20coefficients)%20and%20empirical%20approaches,%20Leontief%20insisted%20on%20theory%20going%20through%20the%20required%20testing%20grounds%20of%20empirical%20observation,%20and%20having%20empirical%20observations%20themselves%20necessarily%20tied%20down%20to%20theory.%20%20%20How%20does%20the%20real%20world%20work?%20%20This%20question%20forces%20the%20researcher%20to%20understand%20that%20theorizing%20and%20waxing%20lyrical%20about%20the%20economic%20machine%27s%20cogs%20and%20sprockets,%20and%20what%20tinkering%20with%20these%20moving%20parts%20could%20or%20could%20not%20churn%20out,%20was%20not%20solely%20determined%20through%20advanced%20mathematical%20modeling%20(taking%20the%20second%20half%20of%20the%2020th%20century%27s%20economics%20scene%20by%20storm)%20but%20by%20working%20on%20data%20interpretation%20techniques%20that%20emulated%20real-world%20systems.%20%20%20Questions%20regarding%20the%20economic%20impact%20now%20had%20answers:%20scrutiny%20via%20simple%20matrices%20(very%20elegantly%20explained%20in%20Leontief%27s%20nobel%20prize%20lecture)%20provided%20them.%20%20Having%20previously%20introduced%20the%20general%20equilibrium%20theory%20and%20Kenneth%20Arrow%27s%20%20take%20on%20equilibrium-led%20approaches,%20is%20particularly%20relevant%20in%20this%20post,%20given%20that%20both%20this%20theory%20and%20input-output%20analysis%20have%20built%20on%20Leon%20Walras%27%20work.%20Walras%27s%20focus%20on%20reaching%20equilibrium%20through%20the%20supply-demand%20relationship,%20price,%20preference,%20and%20restricting%20excess%20demand%20to%200%20(to%20achieve%20equilibrium%20-%20in%20theory%20having%20fulfilled%20the%20required%20prices%20levels%20to%20have%20done%20so)%20%20%20%20Agents,%20traders%20and%20markets%20serve%20as%20the%20backdrop%20that%20fuel%20the%20%20%20%20%20Leontief%20was%20a%20brilliant%20man%20who%20spoke%20mathematics%20fluently,%20he%20embarked%20on%20a%20career" target="_blank">2012 Master's thesis</a> used the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_structure_matrix" target="_blank">design structure matrix </a>model and tool to describe the linkages between the different phases of a real estate development process. While not exactly, an input-output model, it nonetheless links different factors that pares up inputs and outputs, with the possibility of optimizing results via changes in specific factors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Simplicity is remarkable when it produces thoughtful results. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The following video shows and example of the input-output model in action.</span></div>
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<br />Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-51039198530445370772015-01-25T19:50:00.000-06:002015-01-25T19:50:04.568-06:00Follow-up on "Why nations fail"<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, halfway done with the book "<a href="http://whynationsfail.com/" target="_blank">Why nations fail</a>". </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The premise is simple: extractive institutions limit a nation's growth and benefits a few at the expense of many, while inclusive institutions cause the opposite: they foster competition and level the playing field, promoting a meritocracy that results in more a more prosperous nation.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns,_Germs,_and_Steel" target="_blank">Guns, germs and steel </a>author <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond" target="_blank">Jared Diamond</a> and other scientists/economists/academics argue that while authors</span><a href="http://whynationsfail.com/bios/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank"> Acemoglu and Robinson</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> have a point, they're being overtly simplistic and are thus excluding other important factors (like geography, culture, etc).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://levine.sscnet.ucla.edu/david.htm" target="_blank">David Levine,</a> an American economist, and two of his colleagues wrote an <a href="http://www.dklevine.com/general/aandrreview.pdf" target="_blank">interesting review of the book</a>, questioning Acemoglu and Robinson's theories directly: their review presents Germany as a special case - a country </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">that fared both well and badly under extractive (National Socialism during the 30's and 40's) and inclusive (the Weimar Republic) institutions. It turns out that Germany fared particularly well under the Nazi regime, having almost conquered most of Europe during the Third Reich, dominating their neighbors easily via their military force and industrial/economics prowess. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the time, it turns out, Germany was also neck-and-neck with other countries in terms of advances in technology, something that contradicts one of Acemoglu and Robinson's hypotheses: that extractive institutions ultimately fail because they don't advance technologically. And no one can deny that Hitler's government was anything but extractive. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Veering towards an inclusive institution - before Nazi </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Germany, and after Imperial Germany came the Weimar Republic. Germany's transition to a more democratic state during the early 20th century turned out to be a disaster. Hard to believe, but Germany went through hyperinflation during that time. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Inclusive institutions, thus, do not automatically provoke its agents to summarily choose or decide to take on the best economic and political policies. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i>Meaning: inclusive institutions do not guarantee prosperity.</i></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Extractive institutions, it seems, can advance in the realm of technology, and not necessarily meet an unavoidable dead end. </b></span><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Meaning: extractive institutions </b></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">are not necessarily doomed to fail.</b></i><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i>Both inclusive and extractive institutions can thus be good and bad for their nations.</i></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To be fair regarding the Germany Case Study as profiled by Levine et co: the review authors might do well to study Russia and their extractive institutions during the Cold War years. Acemoglu and Robinson do mention how the Russians were advancing at an accelerated rate, during the Soviet era, but point out how that came to an end because of technology. And how even economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson" target="_blank">Paul Samuelson </a>predicted that the USSR would (or could) overtake the US in economic terms. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Amidst such contradictions, doubt now pervades in my mind. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While simplicity, they say, is the seal of truth - in attempting to prove and answer whether inclusive institutions are all a country need to prosper, I'd go with the stereotypical consultant's response: <i>it depends.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But, like so many other theories and hypotheses, it does not necessarily matter, if in the end, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the research that led up to the original premise provides thought-provoking theory that </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">effectuates change</i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Change could come from mere consciousness. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have found Acemoglu and Robinson's hypotheses about institutions to be a useful base to start from, particularly when thinking about my current perception about what goes (and has gone) on in Mexico. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">James Robinson wrote <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/jrobinson/presentations/why-regions-fail-mexican-case" target="_blank">an apt account about Mexico</a>, under the "Why nations fail" guise. True or not, having described in detail how Mexico's current and past political institutions have shaped the country, and how specific perverse incentives, have led to certain consequences, resonated with me. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The wise adage holds that those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it. At the very least, I think that somehow the authors are asking us to do the same (regardless of whether their theories hold water, or hold 100% of the water, as it were).</span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-18603587027367205612015-01-18T21:20:00.000-06:002015-01-18T21:20:20.003-06:00The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1972<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After a longer-than-expected break, Pseudoeconomics' Nobel Prize in Economics series is back.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Article preparation for this series has been a difficult task. The straightforward predetermined path that leads to a proper series post could invariably involve a mix of copy-pasting, sloppy appropriation and smart paraphrasing. I'll do my best to avoid this easier path. I am not beyond falling prey to regurgitating online information, there is no academic authority revising my work after all, but following that path would be somewhat wasteful. And boring. Not to mention painstakingly unoriginal.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The series' purpose is to promote research and a general background about how the nobel prizes in question came to be. Attempting to understand the nuts and bolts behind major breakthrough theories and advances in the realm of economics, albeit conceptually, is of tremendous value to an amateur economist.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And as such, posts like these belong in a website dedicated to an opinion-based take on economics and related subjects.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having cleared that up, let us begin:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ6lU3HfDCzJJ-4uTLbOIBCuv9K6VHJBOgssp6TQ3M4I6OBrIT6nWej1tKT0ukKO8DzZRoqrt_sqQqnO4SnL5Jaan68SxWv8XenSq2_9qn8UJwZ0uofJMfdLoGrGh_1mjEQhl0Bphf14Y/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-01-18+at+9.16.30+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ6lU3HfDCzJJ-4uTLbOIBCuv9K6VHJBOgssp6TQ3M4I6OBrIT6nWej1tKT0ukKO8DzZRoqrt_sqQqnO4SnL5Jaan68SxWv8XenSq2_9qn8UJwZ0uofJMfdLoGrGh_1mjEQhl0Bphf14Y/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-01-18+at+9.16.30+PM.png" height="400" width="375" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1972/" target="_blank">The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1972</a> was awarded jointly to John R. Hicks and Kenneth J. Arrow </span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">"for their pioneering contributions to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory"</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">To appreciate what John Hicks and Kenneth Arrow were celebrated for, it became fundamental to first brush up on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_equilibrium_theory" target="_blank">general economic equilibrium theory</a>. A first glance at the theory quickly leads to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras" target="_blank">Leon Walras</a>, who first pioneered the concept. A pattern emerges amongst those who came to pioneer (Walras) and then revolutionize (Hicks and Arrow) the theory: they were all mathematicians first, economists second. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">Walras was <a href="http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/3486526?sid=21105101526951&uid=2&uid=3738664&uid=4" target="_blank">influenced</a> by his father, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Walras" target="_blank">Auguste Walras</a>, who pushed him to apply mathematics to economic theories. Leon Walras' subsequent findings, were a product of beauty, as complemented by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antoine_Augustin_Cournot" target="_blank">Antoine Augustin Cournot,</a> French mathematician and Auguste Walras' teacher (possibly mentor) who laid the early foundations for econometrics and published influential work on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cournot_competition" target="_blank">monopolies and duopolies</a>. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">John Hicks touched on what the general equilibrium theory had not built on, mainly additional assumptions regarding consumers (demand) and producers (supply) behavior. More than complementing the theory, what Hicks did was to fortify it. He nurtured it by "spreading the word" via his book <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_and_Capital" target="_blank">Value and Capital,</a> with fellow contemporary economists, giving the theory a new audience, who, by then (1930's - 1940's) were developing alternate theories that would fit in nicely with his. Hicks also formalized <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_statics" target="_blank">comparative statics</a> in the book, which has become second nature to any Economics student. <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceteris_paribus" target="_blank">Ceteris paribus</a></i> notwithstanding, comparative statics is a nifty tool that helps understand how endogenous or exogenous factors affect an equilibrium. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">On that same line, it comes as no surprise that most of Hicks' work opened up the possibility for others to take what had previously been put forth (by, for example, school-of-thought defining economists like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" target="_blank">Keynes</a>) and tinker with the different formulas, provoking thought and new questions. Application became primordial. It was as if a non-digestible ultra-nutritional food was suddenly synthesized to an easy to eat meal. Not only that, as time went by, good taste would become part of the deal too.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">The general economic equilibrium theory can get complex, in terms of the dynamism it takes on when taking into account how a supply-and-demand equilibrium can be affected by price (most notably), time, consumer choices, the production function, facing simultaneously the complications that arise from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marginalism" target="_blank">marginalism</a>, and other factors. Hick's <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1972/hicks-lecture.html" target="_blank">nobel prize lecture</a> sheds light on what he had <i>been thinking</i> when he approached the general equilibrium theory, and the factors that distort it. The production function, he says, is affected <i>by invention</i>. Of course! Isn't that obvious? </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">Not in the least. But, going back to the most primary part of the general equilibrium theory - it is widely understood that good's </span><i style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">prices</i><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">, above all, affect other good's prices, and so forth, until an equilibrium, via normal economic activity, is produced. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">Part of what has not been mentioned regarding Hicks' and Arrow's prize is the advancement in welfare theory, which itself was shapen by a Walras and Cournot colleague, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vilfredo_Pareto" target="_blank">Vilifredo Pareto</a>. Much like his peers, Pareto was passionate about veering towards economics as a more scientific discipline, gently leaning away from the more moral philosophical side of things. Still, every Economist mentioned in this post was a philosopher, except for Hicks and Arrow. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">That fact is understandable: as Economics progressed, so did the interests of those that advanced it. Mathematical and scientific inquiry was now a must - and if anything, other disciplines would now have to be such that these would comfortably take on issues like <i>behavior.</i> Psychology in economic theory has now become important, and behavioral economics has been given equal footing as well. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">Continuing the report on what Hicks prepared for others - If we throw in wages, savings, investment, (Hicks was also responsible for the I<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IS%E2%80%93LM_model" target="_blank">S-LM model</a>) growth, and business cycles in the mix, the concocted potion becomes more potent. Hicks references <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stuart_Mill" target="_blank">John Stuart Mill </a>and also shakes <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith" target="_blank">Adam Smith's invisible </a>hand all throughout his research. It's great to see how giants rest on the shoulders of other giants. Continually.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">While Hicks did much for general equilibrium theory, it was Arrow, through the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%E2%80%93Debreu_model" target="_blank">Arrow-Debreu model</a> who rigorously developed a model that proved the existence of general equilibria in any given economy. Per his additional work, Arrow's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_growth_theory" target="_blank">endogenous growth theory </a>caused an interesting conversation to get going, given that not long before Arrow's time, it was generally believed that mostly exogenous factors caused technological change (and thus advancement). Still, what Arrow did, in my opinion, was not only to theorize, but to focus on the positive aspects a first world country, that invests in research and development, education and forward-thinking social programs might produce in terms of growth. In a similar way, Arrow sets forth an interesting take on political theory through his <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem" target="_blank">impossibility theore</a>m. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">Technological change, much like politics are practically impossible to observe closely and measure, but are aspects of Economics that merit academia's attention nonetheless. Other economist's growth & social models and theories have benefited and followed suit.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">Both Economists were visionaries in their own right - Arrow still is. He is the youngest Economics Nobel Prize Winner to date, which makes it no surprise that he is still amongst the living.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">To conclude, something Arrow wrote, that encapsulates the past and future of the general equilibrium theory. Very well put:</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; line-height: 17.9200000762939px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">'“From the time of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations in 1776, one recurrent theme of economic analysis has been the remarkable degree of coherence among the vast numbers of individual and seemingly separate decisions about the buying and selling of commodities. In everyday, normal experience, there is something of a balance between the amounts of goods and services that some individuals want to supply and the amounts that other, different individuals want to sell. Would-be buyers ordinarily count correctly on being able to carry out their intentions, and would-be sellers do not ordinarily find themselves producing great amounts of goods that they cannot sell. This experience of balance indeed so widespread that it raises no intellectual disquiet among laymen; they take it so much for granted that they are not supposed to understand the mechanism by which it occurs.”'</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="line-height: 18.4320011138916px;">For an excellent and technical take on the general equilibrium theory, read Stanford Economist's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Levin_(economist)" target="_blank">Jonathan Levin's </a>2006 paper "<a href="https://web.stanford.edu/~jdlevin/Econ%20202/General%20Equilibrium.pdf" target="_blank">General equilibrium"</a>. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px; line-height: 16.650239944458px;"><br /></span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-77333834470876029532015-01-18T18:48:00.002-06:002015-01-18T18:48:44.410-06:00What good are Economists?<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As redirected by Greg Mankiw - via his blog.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Robert shiller <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.mx/" target="_blank">explains</a>. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An interesting excerpt:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 25.8880004882813px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 25.8880004882813px;">We do not blame physicians for failing to predict all of our illnesses. Our maladies are largely random, and even if our doctors cannot tell us which ones we will have in the next year, or eliminate all of our suffering when we have them, we are happy for the help that they </span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 25.8880004882813px;">can</i><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 25.8880004882813px;"> provide. Likewise, most economists devote their efforts to issues far removed from establishing a consensus outlook for the stock market or the unemployment rate. And we should be grateful that they do.</span> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 25.8880004882813px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In his new book <i style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118781805.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Trillion Dollar Economists</a></i>, Robert Litan of the <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Brookings Institution</a> argues that the economics profession has “created trillions of dollars of income and wealth for the United States and the rest of the world.” That sounds like a nice contribution for a relatively small profession, especially if we do some simple arithmetic. There are, for example, only 20,000 members of the <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">American Economic Association</a> (of which I am President-Elect); if they have created, say, $2 trillion of income and wealth, that is about $100 million per economist. </span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 25.8880004882813px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A cynic might ask, “If economists are so smart, why aren’t they the richest people around?” The answer is simple: Most economic ideas are public goods that cannot be patented or otherwise owned by their inventors. Just because most economists are not rich does not mean that they have not made many people richer.</span></blockquote>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Social science problems.</span></td></tr>
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-21516909322422911982014-12-14T23:24:00.001-06:002014-12-14T23:24:25.004-06:00Quick Notes - Online portals to great Economic/Financial/Political knowledge<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently reading <a href="http://economics.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu" target="_blank">Daron Acemoglu's</a> and J<a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/jrobinson/home" target="_blank">ames Robinson's</a> book: <a href="http://whynationsfail.com/" target="_blank">Why Nations Fail</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The book takes on a tricky subject (comparing first world countries and their political/economic institutions to those in second and third world countries) and constructs a powerful premise: what makes a country fail is not necessarily its geography and/or culture <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond" target="_blank">as others have pointed out -</a> maybe <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21549911" target="_blank">"fortunate accidents"</a> that led countries to adopt more <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inclusive_capitalism" target="_blank">inclusive</a> </i>economic and political institutions are the main reason some nations are better off than others.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Heard about this book when <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denise_Dresser" target="_blank">Denisse Dresser</a>, a Mexican political analyst, pointed out its relevance in a recent conference I attended, where t<a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/12/mexico-s-president" target="_blank">his year's Mexican political scandals and current economic woes</a> were the main focus of her discussion.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Why Nations Fail" serves as an alternative world history tour guide, linking major world events and their outcomes to their ensuing consequences, its effect on countries (as well as regions and whole continents) and their political/socio-economic status, leading up to the present. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A great <a href="http://www.dklevine.com/general/aandrreview.pdf" target="_blank">online book review </a>by Economist <a href="http://www.dklevine.com/" target="_blank">David Levine</a> can serve as an excellent executive summary for anyone looking to get a quick rundown. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More on this and reactions to Acemoglu's and Robinson's theories soon...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also regularly checking out NYU's Stern School of Business' Prof. Aswath Damodaran's <a href="http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/" target="_blank">website</a>, a haven for any finance autodidact out there who wants to know more about valuation (check out Damodaran <a href="http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.mx/" target="_blank">taking on Uber</a>), corporate finance and portfolio management (Damodaran says finance can be <a href="http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/topics.html" target="_blank">"divided into these three main areas"</a>).<a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally...taking a few moments a week to read some literature. Finally got my hands on an english translation of a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Modiano" target="_blank">Patrick Modiano</a> book (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Suspended-Sentences-Novellas-Margellos-Republic/dp/0300198051" target="_blank">Suspended Sentences: Three Novellas</a>). A powerful and very melancholic literary journey to the darkest part of people's memories, in post world war two France.</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Growth through knowledge, into itself and growing.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-55344340674007183352014-11-08T13:01:00.001-06:002014-11-08T13:01:07.507-06:00How to be a prolific writer<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Perfectionism. The bane of my existence.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In comes my favorite hobby: Writing. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These two things clash constantly - thus producing writer's block.</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A distressing joke.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As expected, the internet had some answers. I found a couple of articles, posts, and even a video that shares g</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">reat tips - and great examples of how prolific writers became just that: </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prolific_writers" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">prolific</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>How to be a Prolific Writer</i> from: <a href="http://goinswriter.com/prolific-writer/" target="_blank">Goins, Writer</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>7 Habits</i> from: <a href="http://writetodone.com/7-habits-of-highly-prolific-writers/" target="_blank">Write to Done</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>15 Productivity Secrets</i> from: <a href="http://mentalfloss.com/article/55572/15-productivity-secrets-very-prolific-writers" target="_blank">Mental Floss</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Advice on Writing and Productivity </i>from: <a href="http://nathalielussier.com/archives/how-to-be-prolific-writing-productivity" target="_blank">Nathalie Lussier</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Seven Secrets of Prolific Writers by Hillary Rettig - video:</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-79270696017273235812014-10-18T12:50:00.001-05:002014-10-18T12:50:24.125-05:00Milton Friedman popularizing Economics.<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Milton Friedman is awesome. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwDhx1XkXX0&list=PLOv-GldVeFiXd1exZU0QLYC6ynwkQwbvz" target="_blank">loads of videos</a> of him schooling people on economics (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_school_of_economics" target="_blank">the Chicago school of economics</a> mind you) - <i>the world needs more economists speaking to laypeople like this</i>: reaching out through talk shows, "town hall" type meetings and other public/popular venues. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sure - economists do that in universities and in conferences...but, in my opinion, they don't do enough to popularize Economics.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">People need to understand what's going on in economic terms to really understand the ghost in the economic machine.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here's Friedman talking about how there's no free lunch (ever):</span><br />
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Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-30345649202286467472014-09-28T13:03:00.000-05:002014-09-28T13:08:28.752-05:00Pseudoeconomics reading list: What's been read and what's next<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will be sporadically listing my economics/finance/business book recommendations on this website.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig0mbYn-T5mN0Vh7H9CG1iiGRgQBM5o8mKRfPDGi8mbW7FqD9Pc5V9XlPj5mzRbu2rKQUu_4vBWBYV3MJ4fYYetr4iwJKvUbFSoQl5kM1eJajywNxwVzc69UM73iFZG2EM8iIBTk-jqdk/s1600/Book_OLD_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig0mbYn-T5mN0Vh7H9CG1iiGRgQBM5o8mKRfPDGi8mbW7FqD9Pc5V9XlPj5mzRbu2rKQUu_4vBWBYV3MJ4fYYetr4iwJKvUbFSoQl5kM1eJajywNxwVzc69UM73iFZG2EM8iIBTk-jqdk/s1600/Book_OLD_1.jpg" height="232" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I recommend the e-book version.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last book I read and posted about was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller" target="_blank">Robert J. Shiller's</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Akerlof" target="_blank">George Akerlof's</a> book <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Spirits:_How_Human_Psychology_Drives_the_Economy,_and_Why_It_Matters_for_Global_Capitalism" target="_blank">"Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism"</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The authors make a an excellent case for the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrationality" target="_blank">irrationality</a> that deeply affects the world economy at large, and how this cognitive deviation and its effects leads to the following conclusion: in economics, and all that it touches (markets, banking, finance, trade, etc.), <i>psychology matters</i>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And while the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)" target="_blank">term</a> "animal spirits" was originally used by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" target="_blank">John Maynard Keynes</a> in his 1936 book <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_General_Theory_of_Employment,_Interest_and_Money" target="_blank">"The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money"</a>, it took more than half a century for these two economists to come along and write this book. Why was there more rational actor based economic theory in the past 50 years, and less <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics" target="_blank">behavioral economics </a>related subject matter to countenance the former?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To be fair, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory" target="_blank">decision theory</a> and the psychological basis for decision-making has been taken into account since <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith" target="_blank">Adam Smith's</a> time (note his book <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_Moral_Sentiments" target="_blank">"The Theory of Moral Sentiments"</a>). Common sense and experience can quickly make anyone discover how the economy, in its essence, is truly human. While the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand" target="_blank">Invisible Hand </a>has been purported to be the self-regulating magister behind every economy, there should be no doubt that this hand is anything but all-knowing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What's always fun about these reads is how they lead to other interesting sources, and how the same questions posed by the authors become questions that engulf the reader. For example, how is it that some economists stand by their theories, the ones devoid of or that negate the human psychology behind them?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shiller and Akerlof are great at laying out evidence to prod holes in their fellow economist's arguments, or to bring attention to the exception to the rule in popular and well-accepted economic theories. Sometimes, depending on one's own inclinations, reading about different economic takes on subjects starts to feel like being in a great restaurant the offers a vast number of dishes. There is no perfect way to choose, but some choices are healthier than others.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some say economist's opinions should come from one-handed economists...that way the person looking for advice can avoid having two choices (on the one hand, and on the other...) for every problem. In other words, opinions and the theories behind most economic and social phenomena abound. There is no economic theory panacea.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nonetheless, the authors provide sound advice for today's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_problem" target="_blank">economic problems</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The following LSE (London School of Economics) <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVdtPLPcM4o" target="_blank">vi<span id="goog_935629601"></span>d<span id="goog_935629602"></span>eo</a> was recorded in 2009 and shows Robert J. Shiller discussing his book:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Confidence. Fairness. Corruption. Money Illusion. The persistence of poverty amongst minorities. Tradeoffs. People and how they misunderstand market realities, and their irrational choices about the financial challenges they face.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fascinating to read about. Pursuing an investigation on the subject and digging deeper leads to further information for a more balanced opinion.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In comes my small discovery: Caltech's <a href="http://www.hss.caltech.edu/content/colin-f-camerer" target="_blank">Colin F. Camerer </a>and Carnegie Mellon's <a href="http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/people/faculty/george-loewenstein.html" target="_blank">George Loewenstein</a>, publication <a href="http://nowandfutures.com/d2/BehavioralEconomics(conventional)ribe239.pdf" target="_blank">"Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, Future"</a>. The article starts off with a few headings that contribute to a general overview:</span><br />
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What Behavioral Economics Tries to Do</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Evaluating Behavioral Economics</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Historical Context of Behavioral Economics</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Methods of Behavioral Economics</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The references listed at the end of the article take up a total of 13 pages. The degrees of separation from the authors to their contemporaries are two degrees away or less. The opportunity to further investigate and find out more about the subject is practically infinite.There's even a <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsites.fas.harvard.edu%2F~ec970sw%2Fhandouts%2FReadingGuideCamererLoewenstein.doc&ei=wkgoVLqTL4ewyQScmoLIDw&usg=AFQjCNFW98GrBM14JeGoyRkxomBkh8bU_A&sig2=rHT6s8Kw4mo5xVa0PhtmuQ&bvm=bv.76247554,d.aWw" target="_blank">reading guide</a> from a Harvard.edu website that's pretty useful to follow.These sources explain the subject fully and put everything neatly into context. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Camerer and Loewenstein are leaders in the behavioral economics field. Their work structures the experimented underpinnings that make the case for the psychology behind economics at large. And much like Shiller and Akerlof in their own work, they do so with the utmost conviction.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A video where George Loewenstein talks about behavioral economics, and the role emotions play in decision-making:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What's next on the reading list?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Wolf" target="_blank">Martin Wolf's</a> </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Shifts-Shocks-Learned-Financial/dp/1594205442" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">"The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've Learned - and Have Still to Learn - from the Financial Crisis."</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This choice was based other's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Shifts-Shocks-Learned-Financial/dp/1594205442" target="_blank">recommendations</a>, in this case leaders in the field.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Commentary on the book will soon follow.</span></div>
Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-31061269250599862802014-09-21T23:08:00.001-05:002014-09-21T23:08:21.910-05:00Pseudoeconomics.com and it's purpose<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I am constantly amazed by bloggers who regularly churn out quality material every week. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Quality posts take time, as well as a considerable amount of effort. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Every post represents its author's motivation to express an opinion on a specific subject, or a piece of breaking news, as is the case with the articles found in most magazines and newspapers. Blogs also have regular readers who expect consistent content. And captivating an audience is key - reader's expectations must and should be met.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the blog universe, periodicity can also vary. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_blank">Paul Krugman</a> posts almost every day.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> He contributes his opinions regularly to the New York Times </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/blogs/directory.html?_r=0" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">blogosphere</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. </span><a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.mx/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Greg Mankiw</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> isn't as prolific, but his bio clearly mentions that his reason for blogging is to "keep in touch with his current and former students".</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And then there are cases where the blog meets its final purpose, and thus end, as happened with the <a href="http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/" target="_blank">Becker-Posner blog</a>, a fascinating source for economic opinion and theory that was terminated after economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Becker" target="_blank">Gary Becker</a> passed away earlier this year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the case of <a href="http://www.pseudoeconomics.com/" target="_blank">this blog</a> - it has functioned as an independent entity which focuses on opinion pieces. The blog clearly lacks an audience. This means that no pre-defined expectations have to be met. While this can seem liberating, in practice, it usually lends itself to an unorganized pursuit. When no one expects a weekly post, it's hard to keep an editorial schedule.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, what is the goal here?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is <i>not</i> to have an audience. That lofty goal will hopefully have to be reckoned with in the future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The goal here is to <i>learn</i>, and to share a thoughtful exchange in doing so.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Barry Ritholtz summarizes this line of thinking perfectly in his recent blog post "<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/what-i-learned-after-30000-blog-posts/?utm_source=The+Big+Picture+Updates&utm_campaign=ca68263c33-big_picture_email&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_662cf1de86-ca68263c33-39098201" target="_blank">What I learned after 30,000 blog posts</a>".</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, here's to learning. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Who knows? Maybe an interested economics buff or curious reader will drop by one day and share a thought or idea.</span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-68575673247454831102014-08-03T18:42:00.001-05:002014-08-03T18:42:05.746-05:00What makes a genius<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From <a href="http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/" target="_blank">Farnam Street</a> - "<a href="http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/08/what-makes-a-genius/" target="_blank">What makes a genius</a>":</span><br />
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<br />Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-29856927887905302462014-06-29T13:16:00.000-05:002014-06-29T13:17:30.563-05:00Catchy titles/Mediocre Content - Correlation?<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Start your sunday morning scrolling through headlines, when you suddenly read the following title:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-its-like-to-work-at-apple-2014-6?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29" target="_blank">"Why Apple employees never wanted to have lunch with Steve Jobs."</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
Bodacious title.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
Summary: The article explains how Apple employees were always frightened about being "put on the spot" by Steve Jobs. </span><br />
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Surprising? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
And there it is - again with the proliferation of big names, reduced to adorning junk information: time and time again, the reader gets to experience big names like Steve Jobs and the famous personality that comes with them. Superficial journalism lending itself to character exploitation, like the flea market barons selling Che Guevara's likeness...will those t-shirts, mugs and touristy items with his face plastered all over them ever stop being alluring? </span><br />
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People seem to be rediscovering big personalities continuously. Even big characters that are long gone and that many don't want to remember slither in surreptitiously into conversations (ever heard someone equate someone they deem authoritarian and strongly dislike to Hitler? Unfortunately this is too common).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
If I could equate this Business Insider article to a beer, I'd equate it to a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coors_Light" target="_blank">Coors light</a><u> - </u>a pleasant drink that does the job, but lacks the originality and distinct taste of select <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microbrewery" target="_blank">craft beer</a>. If I wanted to drink in the morning, I would not drink such a beverage. <i>If </i>I wanted to drink in the morning. No - I do <u>not</u> drink in the morning. Freud would probably have a field day psychoanalyzing this short paragraph. But Freud is passé, so.</span><br />
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Anyways.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
I've often found that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/" target="_blank">Business Insider </a>has a knack for creating catchy headlines...mixing pop culture with shreds of serious content. It sometimes seems that they value the headline above all else.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
<u>A couple of the headlines from today's Business Insider front page:</u></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fabulous-life-of-bill-gates-2014-6" target="_blank">"<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">The Fabulous Life Of Bill Gates, The Richest Man In The World"</span></a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/student-leaders-ask-hillary-to-return-speaking-fee-2014-6" target="_blank">"<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">Student Leaders Ask Hillary To Return 'Outrageous' $225,000 School Speaking Fee"</span></a></span></li>
<li><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mauricio-pinilla-shot-nearly-knocks-out-brazil-2014-6" target="_blank"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">"</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">A Perfectly Timed Photo Shows How Close Brazil Was To Getting Knocked Out Of The World Cup"</span></a></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
To be fair, let's see what the headlines are in other news sources:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
<u><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/" target="_blank">The Huffington Post</a></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In huge capital letters: "<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/28/obamacare-hobby-lobby_n_5539661.html" target="_blank">Supremes saving worst for last?"</a></span></li>
<li><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px !important; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/maria-shriver/working-for-our-working-f_b_5515435.html" style="border: 0px; line-height: 18px !important; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Working for Our Working Families</a></span></li>
<li><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px !important; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peggy-drexler/women-believe-sexual-assa_b_5525359.html" style="border: 0px; line-height: 18px !important; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Women Believe Sexual Assault Is Part of the Female Experienc</a>e</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 36px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Can You Spell P-R-O-D-I-G-Y? Kindergartner Kazim Ali, 6, Wins Spelling Bee</span></span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/" target="_blank">The Economist</a></span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Confounding the pessimists</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Better late than never?</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Don't hold your breath</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I won't go into detail - I think the different titles speak for themselves. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Interestingly enough, Business Insider follows the 5 easy tricks needed to write catchy headlines that this article <a href="http://goinswriter.com/catchy-headlines/" target="_blank">outlines</a>. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To the letter.</span></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Are catchy titles correlated to mediocre content?</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This could make for an interesting <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference" target="_blank">Bayesian analysis</a>.</span></div>
Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-88760779215061521852014-06-22T13:01:00.000-05:002014-06-22T13:04:36.799-05:00Natural logarithms made easy (and fun)<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If I were a Secondary School Math teacher, I'd force feed my students this sort of fun, entertaining and thought-provoking video.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'd also invite the people that made the video to come and meet with me and the rest of the faculty to have them suggest the best way to make this sort of approach work.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is great.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/N-7tcTIrers?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-78523332477495251462014-04-13T19:46:00.000-05:002014-04-13T21:11:36.669-05:00Decision-making: It's only easy if you think so.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1hyphenhyphenIs2hnoImIauvBoZVjbvMs-ALuutSQum5T2jTt8VqVxC62akOWIljTfRWw3LdLFNT-cyz3BxIjke-FNzxXWbGtEWGmeJe0AsGACFq6hrPX6ISKL5snLdowdQOlonaMHTNC_8ocLkb4/s1600/2983554-460422-big-blue-labyrinth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1hyphenhyphenIs2hnoImIauvBoZVjbvMs-ALuutSQum5T2jTt8VqVxC62akOWIljTfRWw3LdLFNT-cyz3BxIjke-FNzxXWbGtEWGmeJe0AsGACFq6hrPX6ISKL5snLdowdQOlonaMHTNC_8ocLkb4/s1600/2983554-460422-big-blue-labyrinth.jpg" height="318" width="320"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It's a good thing I know where the starting point is.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It happens often: inspiration strikes and an idea for an article starts to conspicuously manifest itself in my head.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pen to paper. Or fingers to keyboard, as it were.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then - more data comes in, spurring additional thoughts that cause tangential subjects to gain relevance, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">which, in turn, alters the soon-to-be-written article's original premise. Mental version 1 of the article becomes a fuzzy backdrop once mental version 26 comes round. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A busy Monday to Friday schedule, coupled with family time on weekends, makes the <a href="http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2014/01/22/daniel-goleman-focus-10000-hours-myth/" target="_blank">focus</a> required to write a coherent article seem like an unreachable concept; spare time has become a privilege.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The absence of a distraction-free environment and the continuing onslaught of everyday commitments unfailingly gets in the way. </span><br>
<br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Something else also happens: the <a href="http://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/how_to_focus_a_wandering_mind" target="_blank">mind wanders</a> between primordial tasks (i.e., work related activities, family-raising tasks and select social engagements) and has little, if any, willpower left for activities that require special focus and attention.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A-RqZzd2JU#t=116" target="_blank">brain's default mode network</a> eats up the day's free hours - reactions to external stimuli brought on by the environment dithers away any chance of producing quality material. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Writing is put away for another day.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To me - this all sounds like an excuse.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">No one, after all, is exempt from everyday life and the trials set forth by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_condition" target="_blank">human condition</a>. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To get time, once must then make time.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Stiil - time will not be enough. Depending solely on time will result in suboptimal results, mostly because time cannot always be assured.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_DHCYgS37TJPytdiTwc8xJv91zoxGzzjgKIMifLSxZs0qymf-3xqtKrjsJo-SpMHGidFQmVAfkJsHk-J6gOFZJs0Na-z6RJbH8iO6GybcpxxYIR7Mupw47uW0tn9hzbL7CJEB4XB6mqs/s1600/Going-Knots-Huguette-Roe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_DHCYgS37TJPytdiTwc8xJv91zoxGzzjgKIMifLSxZs0qymf-3xqtKrjsJo-SpMHGidFQmVAfkJsHk-J6gOFZJs0Na-z6RJbH8iO6GybcpxxYIR7Mupw47uW0tn9hzbL7CJEB4XB6mqs/s1600/Going-Knots-Huguette-Roe.jpg" height="265" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I'm sure we can figure out something.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To solve this problem, a system can be put in place - a logical, mental algorithm can be considered as a possible repeatable method to make time for writing whenever it should suit the writer, in spite of externalities. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mental maps and processes help the organized mind execute everyday activities, taking both the short term and long term consequences into account. Decisions as to which sequence of activities to execute, i.e., which processes or systems to employ, depends on both the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data" target="_blank">data</a> that is available, and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic" target="_blank">heuristically</a> inspired <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic" target="_blank">intuitive reasoning</a> all human beings possess.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making" target="_blank">Decision-making</a> as a <a href="https://psych.uni-goettingen.de/de/development/publications/5uniquely_human_ML.pdf" target="_blank">cognitive process </a>is present in all human beings, and it is a trait that signifies general intelligence. Notwithstanding those whom consider themselves infallible, the rest of us have come to understand, that not all decisions deliver the best outcomes. Whether the decision-maker blames himself or others for a good or bad outcome is besides the point: trying to understand <i>how</i> and <i>why </i>a decision is made is a truly necessary, yet hopelessly labyrinthine pursuit. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thankfully, much research has been done on how to make better decisions, and significant progress has been made through the past and ongoing contributions scientists, psychologists, economists, businessmen and other gifted minds have shared with the world.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Choosing which decision-making model, inspiring scientific insight or approach to study and apply becomes an impossible task - the amount of scrutinous analysis produced on the subject is overwhelming. Optimal decision-making students fall prey to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_paralysis" target="_blank">analysis paralysis</a> through <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_overload" target="_blank">information overload</a>. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0000Jy" target="_blank">Edward Tufte</a>, a Statistician and Professor at Yale University, <a href="http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0000Jy" target="_blank">argues that information overload is usually a symptom of organizational underload</a>. Tufte is an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infographic" target="_blank">infographics</a> pioneer, and has proven his thorough understanding of sound decision-making through his data analysis <a href="http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_vdqi" target="_blank">work</a>. He has disproved the neat freak-led belief that messy desks equal disorganized minds, instead attributing chaotic office environments to minds who have yet to file and organize the ideas in their heads. I empathize completely with my fellow messy-desk disorder sufferers and will choose to now <strike>abuse </strike> use that rationalization forever more.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc_DHdvkCn292gLsLHDlAC8A-LqlELiBp7yemwNy6WwvvzFX5b08s4jyjEy4dhBqVpWTfALCIlgKly2HCsNvmFFEIPn4GIBz1SmTf9iEEvEJNWv5Ya9BNeaZGCvuW1o1EH25f5w0nUDxE/s1600/messy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc_DHdvkCn292gLsLHDlAC8A-LqlELiBp7yemwNy6WwvvzFX5b08s4jyjEy4dhBqVpWTfALCIlgKly2HCsNvmFFEIPn4GIBz1SmTf9iEEvEJNWv5Ya9BNeaZGCvuW1o1EH25f5w0nUDxE/s1600/messy.jpg" height="400" width="307"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Where did I leave that donut?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://leelab.yale.edu/people/daeyeol_lee-2.profile" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Daeyol Lee</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, a Professor of Neurobiology and of Psychology, also from Yale, directs the </span><a href="http://leelab.yale.edu/index.aspx" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Cognition and Decision-Making Lab</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> at the university and is working to understand how biological science can help us </span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/01/science-secrets-making-decisions_n_3844400.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">understand the "secrets" behind better decision-making</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Yale is obviously on a roll when it comes to the study of decision-making - let's not forget 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics winner </span><a href="http://news.yale.edu/2013/10/14/another-yale-nobel-robert-shiller" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Robert Shiller</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, a Yale man himself, whose work on </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">behavioral economics</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> has helped both public/private organizations and institutions better understand how economic decisions affect...well, economies.</span><br>
<br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norbert_Wiener" target="_blank">Norbert Wiener,</a> a Professor of Mathematics who taught at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technology" target="_blank">MIT</a>, derived his own take on decision-making (or on <i>steering </i>decisions, as a Cybernetician might say) through <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cybernetics" target="_blank">Cybernetics</a>, a unique systems-led approach that manages complexity</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, through control and communication, a theory he first stated in his book: </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cybernetics:_Or_the_Control_and_Communication_in_the_Animal_and_the_Machine" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">"Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and in the Machine". </a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Stafford_Beer" target="_blank">Stafford Beer</a>, a Cybernetician who also taught at the<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_Business_School" target="_blank"> Manchester Business School,</a> applied Cybernetics to management and subsequently developed the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viable_System_Model" target="_blank">Viable System Model</a>, a system made up of subsystems that functions as an autonomous entity that responds to a changing environment through information-fed feedback loops. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All in all, institutions, governments, businesses and other types of entities, whether individual, group-led, large or small, have benefited to some degree thanks to these men's contributions. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet, having referenced these academics is akin to barely skimming the surface when it comes to the work done on matters that directly and indirectly affect the science of decision-making. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Therein, it is possible to face a roadblock - even though society at large has benefited from the aforementioned work, there is still a gap that has yet to be filled, primarily between those that can successfully implement and execute processes and systems that can deal with complexity that lead to better decisions, and those, that are not ready to employ such solutions or simply, out of ignorance or corruption, choose not to. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In other words: <i>managing expectations is key</i>. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For the sake of simplicity, I'll leave the reader to interpret what "managing expectations" means here. I'll try to sum it up in one thought though: managing expectations in this context means making sure people understand the work that is required to accomplish the task in question, the reward that comes with this work, and assuring that those involved, at the end of the day, will be able to see light at the end of the tunnel (i.e., they'll maintain their motivation).</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As always, when it comes to managing expectations, the jury is still out on how to best accomplish this. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given this fact, I've always been a fan of keeping things simple, or as simple as possible. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To exemplify a theory grounded in simplicity: Einstein's famous early 20th century t<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_relativity" target="_blank">heory of special relativity</a> was profoundly absent of the "detail work" most of the scientific papers at the time were chock full of, with the theory having been proven mostly through Einstein's own thought-experiments and well thought out abstract notions. Yet everyone (in the scientific community at the time) was at the very least able to understand where he was coming from once the paper was published. Once others proved Einstein's theories through experiments, he became an instant celebrity overnight. People now understood - or understood enough. Or...understood <i>more</i>. And those that understood Einstein's theories deeply (like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Hawking" target="_blank">Stephen Hawking</a>) have been able to further explore the universe and the matter (or energy...e=mc2...Einstein helped us understand that both are one and the same) that it consists of. The rest is history. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'm almost certain <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman" target="_blank">Richard Feynman</a> wrote or said the following (paraphrase): if you cannot teach something complex to a teenager, as evidenced by having him not understand what you're trying to teach, then it's impossible to believe the idea is true or, alternatively, that you truly understand it.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meaning: truly understanding something should give a rational person the the ability to be able to explain an idea clearly to someone else and to have that person fully understand the concept - which should result in the clarity needed to perfectly manage expectations. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This revelation has made it difficult for me to implement theoretical and abstract models like optimal decision making models after having supposedly "learned" them. Most of the time, I've realized that I did not truly understand the models I was looking to implement - which, funnily enough, has turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Knowing that you know nothing, like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato" target="_blank">Plato</a> once said, turns out to be quite advantageous: one gets to truly learn what one is looking to implement after further study and experimentation.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<br>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0AjVj8GkX-gxhDuHTK5bBf8Lpq4TpNYXq2jddIDTG8DN88o_gE7c1NXLophyphenhyphenYT8UJV-v_-LQpDp5xmp1LUAW2FL5KA5_iagJuVT6wQQy4XAZgIXX8U4yfhc2qB9rNAsXxPNM-XlfL-EY/s1600/Einstein_Plato_6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0AjVj8GkX-gxhDuHTK5bBf8Lpq4TpNYXq2jddIDTG8DN88o_gE7c1NXLophyphenhyphenYT8UJV-v_-LQpDp5xmp1LUAW2FL5KA5_iagJuVT6wQQy4XAZgIXX8U4yfhc2qB9rNAsXxPNM-XlfL-EY/s1600/Einstein_Plato_6.jpg" height="268" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">At least one of them has a sense of humor.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Working extra to do things well does pay off.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, amidst all this complexity, it's advisable to subscribe to the following tenets (as mentioned in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcXxHZssCh4" target="_blank">this very entertaining History Channel video regarding Einstein's life</a>), to keep the faith and motivation as one looks to implement the best systems and processes possible.</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As followed by Einstein, t</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o readily answer the question "Why have faith that something is right?", as he did with his thought-led yet-to-be-proven theories (at the time):</span><br>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. What is proposed must be simple and beautiful</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. Understand that most scientists (or the respective professionals that will be on the receiving end, depending on the situation) may not or will not initially see it that way</span> </blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. Disregard how long it will take to prove your theory, justifiably keep at it</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The third point is key - the level of discipline needed to keep on moving must be extraordinary, regardless of whether the world is with you or against you.</span><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, in terms of the initial baby steps the business world can take to make better decisions, I'd advise executives the following: <b>read the</b></span><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> latest (March/April 2014) </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Technology_Review" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">MIT Technology Review</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Business Report.</span></b><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An article titled "</span><a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/523661/scientific-thinking-in-business/" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Scientific Thinking in Business</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">" summarizes how, by employing the s</span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">cientific method</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, a set of defined principles meant to apply reason to problem solving (i.e., making a decision regarding a specific question), businesses can benefit more through these age-old reasoning techniques</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> than by relying solely on intuition. The article explains, in a very clear manner, how relying solely on data can be equally dangerous: over-reliance on data can lead to the wrong results, whereas successfully</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> employed creativity can help decision makers ask the right questions, and interpret the data correctly. <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/21a6e7d8-b479-11e3-a09a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xPO7FQzh" target="_blank">Big data has proven to be a minefield </a>for those that quickly misinterpret or impulsively derive quick results without employing a scientific method led inquiry and experimentation to their analysis.</span><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The article is realistic, in the sense that it acknowledges how the scientific method is most useful when employed by academics, who live in a world where making a decision based on carefully perused data is prone to careful examination by others - where as in the political, business, policy and advertising worlds strategic decisions have to be made rapidly, according to the company in question's strategy (this effectively means that following point #3 becomes quite challenging).</span><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet maintaining a level of healthy skepticism, mixed with a livelier sense of intuition, that spurs creativity, is completely necessary, and can be accomplished, by relying on the scientific method...to ask the right questions, testing them with data, and repeating the process if need be. Blindly following the data, or ignoring it completely and substituting its validity with hunches, is, in the end, equally damaging.</span><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, after all has been said and done, it must be acknowledged that humans and their decision-making abilities have and will be studied under the biological, scientific, business, and overall system-based microscope, but in the end, whether a brilliant idea is derived by experimental deduction, or confidently, through intuition, <b>the success that lies behind the idea's implementation rests mostly on what lies <i>within</i> the person proposing it, and not entirely on the idea itself. </b></span><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let us then look for better ways to make decisions by better preparing ourselves first, instead of blindly following someone else's instructions.</span>Steppenwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765589340258659257noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-185395041667510304.post-43339007135398033732014-03-31T09:27:00.003-05:002014-03-31T09:29:05.829-05:00Creative Routines - food for thought<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/29/brilliant-people-schedules_n_5055953.html" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a> - larger version <a href="http://infographwetrust.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/daily-rituals.png" target="_blank"><i>here</i></a>:</span><br />
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